The Clarion county election rundown

Who's standing and who's bowing out? With elections for every seat on Oxfordshire County Council coming up on 1 May, we take a look at the battlegrounds.

Cast your mind back to 2021. It was the height of Boris Johnson’s pomp, with the Conservatives enjoying a Covid bounce. Labour’s post-Corbyn Brexit travails rumbled on, while the LibDems had not yet happened upon the strategy of throwing their leader down waterslides or out of planes.

Yet in the May elections, the Conservatives lost control of Oxfordshire County Council to a coalition of LibDems, Greens and Labour. Perhaps some of this was a result of the Conservatives focusing on the ‘Red Wall’. But more important were the county’s changing demographics: Oxford’s knowledge economy, London emigrés moving into countless new houses, very local concerns about the impact of those houses, and quite simply, Conservative voters dying and not being replaced by a younger intake.

Four years on, and OCC is up for election again. Nationally, it’s not looking comfortable for the Conservatives. Kemi Badenoch is no Boris Johnson, and Nigel Farage is ostentatiously parking his tanks on her lawn. Labour’s 2024 landslide has ebbed. The insurgent parties – Reform UK, the LibDems, the Greens – are riding high. Most commentators think the Conservatives will lose seats.

If Oxfordshire simply followed national trends, we could stop there. As we saw in 2021, it doesn’t. Demographic change rolls on: two further district councils (Cherwell and West Oxon) have fallen from Conservative control. The city of Oxford has a new insurgent, the traffic-focused Independent Oxford Alliance.

The starting point is LibDem 20; Conservative 18; Labour 14; Green 3; independents 6; Reform UK 2.

We can't promise to set out the odds in every single division. Our knowledge of the political currents in, say, Cholsey & The Hagbournes is not that great. (Sorry, Cholseyites.) But here are our county-wide observations, followed by the highlights for each area.

County-wide

• Lots of incumbents are standing down – over a third of the current council. Eight Conservative councillors aren't standing again this time, including big names like Donna Ford, Ian Corkin and Yvonne Constance. Also standing down are six LibDems (though in two cases this is due to being elected as MPs), two Greens (including OCC’s deputy leader Pete Sudbury), three Labour councillors and four independents.
• And the “incumbent bonus” may be limited. A sitting councillor usually has a head-start due to name recognition and (you would hope) a list of achievements over the last four years. But boundaries are changing this time, with 69 new seats replacing 63 previous ones. Several incumbents will have to introduce themselves to a partially new electorate, as will those who have chosen to move to a more winnable seat, a practice known as the ‘chicken run’.
• There are very few ‘stand-aside’ deals. In previous elections, the LibDems and Greens have sometimes stood aside to allow the others a clear run at the seat. Not this time. (Of course, standing for election doesn't necessarily mean you'll actually campaign.)
• The LibDems are aiming for a majority. Currently they have 20 councillors out of 63. Even with Green support, they can only form a minority administration. But they have said they hope to win a majority, which would be 35 seats from 69. Tall order, but not impossible.
• Even party leaders aren’t safe. The LibDems’ Liz Leffman should be home and dry in Charlbury. But Eddie Reeves (Conservative, standing in Cropredy) is being pushed hard by the LibDems, and Liz Brighouse (Labour, Churchill) is at risk from the IOA.
• Reform UK are standing (almost) everywhere. Out of 69 divisions, Nigel Farage's party are contesting 64. (Most of the gaps are in the Vale of White Horse area, oddly.) The presence of Farage's party, whether Brexit/Reform or UKIP, has traditionally been held to hurt the Conservatives most. In the rural areas that’s certainly true – but they could also eat into Labour votes in Banbury and Didcot. Will they win any seats themselves? It’s unlikely, but not impossible. More likely is a swathe of second and third places.
• Most candidates now choose not to disclose their address. You can appear on the list of candidates with your full address, or simply as "address in South Oxfordshire" (or wherever). The majority of candidates are choosing the latter.
• The Conservatives are standing under the "Local Conservatives" banner again. Insert Royston Vasey joke here.

Our previews below are arranged by district, but these are county elections, of course. Our thanks to Oxvote, who have shared their meticulous forecasts with us. If the climate is the defining issue for your vote, head over to their site to enter your postcode. For the full list of candidates, check out the “Statements of persons nominated” on the Oxfordshire County Council website.

Oxford City

The elections in Oxford promise to be a colossal bunfight. Most wards have at least six candidates: Conservative, Labour, LibDem, Green, Independent Oxford Alliance (or an allied independent), and Reform UK. Add a smattering from the Trade Union & Socialist Coalition, a few unaffiliated indies, and even a showing from the Animal Welfare Party, and these are the hardest to call in the county.

But that won't stop us doing it. In fact, we looked at the Oxford battlegrounds in a long read in January. We won't flatter ourselves by suggesting party strategists have been making decisions based on our calculations, but… there are some uncanny echoes.

East Oxford

East Oxford divisions, where Labour dominates, are the main targets for the Independent Oxford Alliance – but Reform could take a sizeable share of the vote, particularly in Leys and Rose Hill & Littlemore.

• In Churchill & Lye Valley, Labour’s group leader Liz Brighouse is under threat from Ajaz Rehman, an ex-Labour city councillor for the Oxford Independent Group but standing this time for the Independent Oxford Alliance (you don’t even have to click the link). He also stood for parliament in High Wycombe last year.
• Barton Sandhills & Risinghurst is a probable Labour hold for Glynis Phillips given no IOA presence. Jabu Nala-Hartley for the Oxford Community Socialists is the far-left candidate with the highest profile this time round.
• Cowley is a likely independent win, after Labour incumbent Charlie Hicks stepped down and the party stumbled over selecting a replacement. Labour’s Mhairi Beken will need a strong tactical vote from LibDem and Green supporters. One anti-LTN candidate, Pat Mylvaganam, lives in Kidlington and is 92 years old. The other is Saj Malik, who is not formally standing for the Independent Oxford Alliance but has been endorsed by their Cowley city councillor Ian Yeatman. In 2019, Malik was suspended by Labour after a domestic violence court order was applied against him.
• Leys is currently held by Labour’s Imade Edosomwan. Reform are in with a shout here. Speaking of shouts… the Independent Oxford Alliance candidate is Anthony Church, who as a town crier took part in the 2012 Olympics opening ceremony before it emerged that he had falsified a career in the armed forces, wearing medals he had bought online and claiming to have been awarded an OBE. The secretary of the Loyal Company of Town Criers called his actions “deplorable and beneath contempt”. A second independent, Michael Evans, was convicted of assault last year in connection with an incident in Kidlington.
• Marston & Northway would usually have Green potential, but the party isn’t campaigning here this time, making it a straightforward fight between Labour’s Mark Lygo and the IOA’s Nasreen Majeed.
• Rose Hill & Littlemore will be a test of whether Reform take more votes from Labour or the IOA. Labour’s Trish Elphinstone has taken an IOA-adjacent position by campaigning to remove the Crowell Road LTN (Low Traffic Neighbourhood). Will this stop votes seeping to the IOA – or send less car-centric voters into the arms of the Greens? The IOA candidate here is their group leader David Henwood.
• Headington & Quarry is demographically quite distinct from the rest of East Oxford and is held by the LibDems’ Roz Smith, facing Labour’s Sumukh Kaul and independent Peter West who runs a ‘One Headington’ Facebook page. Labour pushed the LibDems incredibly close on the City Council last year, with two recounts required before Roz Smith was confirmed to be just seven votes ahead of James Taylor; with three contenders in the mix, this is likely to be a nail-biter.

Central & South Oxford

Though boundaries have changed, all this area is currently Labour-held. The challenge is from an ascendant Green Party, already strong on the City Council. How do you draw up a policy that appeals to both Green and IOA waverers? Answers on a postcard… or a leaflet. Of which there have been many here.

• Bartlemas is ‘inner East Oxford’, the area the Sunday Times chose as one of its top places to live. This is a top Green target, with their city councillor Emily Kerr standing against Labour’s Thomas Boyd. We are also intrigued by the Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition candidate who gives her address as a farmhouse in rural West Oxfordshire.
• Parks, taking in much of the city centre plus St Clements, is another Green target. Their candidate Emma Garnett is facing Labour city councillor Louise Upton. The student vote could swing this one, and Oxvote reckons the Greens have a slight edge. No fewer than eight candidates will be on the ballot paper, including Emily Scaysbrook from games shop Hoyles for the IOA, and Gavin Ridley for the Animal Welfare Party.
• Isis, around the Abingdon Road and the riverside, is a fight between Labour’s incumbent Brad Baines and the Greens’ Neil Doig. Labour will benefit from the lack of any IOA candidate.

North & West Oxford

• Jericho & Osney sees the unusual situation of two sitting councillors competing, as a result of boundary changes. Labour’s Susanna Pressel is facing the LibDems’ John Howson, and it would be brave to bet against Susanna Pressel. There is no IOA candidate here.
• Summertown & Walton Manor is a fierce contest between the Liberal Democrats’ Katherine Miles and Labour’s James Fry, both city councillors. Oxvote’s predictions suggest the LibDems need a handful of tactical votes to win. The IOA are fielding Mark Beer, a member of the World Economic Forum’s Expert Network, which might surprise anti-LTN protesters who marched through the city in 2023 against what conspiracy theorists called the World Economic Forum’s “totalitarian” 15-minute city plans. He stood for the Conservatives in Summertown in 2022, coming third.
• Wolvercote & Cutteslowe is currently held by the LibDems’ Andrew Gant. Labour have nominated Charlotte Vinnicombe. The IOA are putting up Inga Nicholas, whose posters take aim at the traffic measures spearheaded by Cllr Gant. Perhaps the most curious candidate is Melinda Tilley for Reform UK, who lives in Stanford-in-the-Vale, was formerly the Conservatives’ OCC cabinet member for education, and at 81 is one of the oldest standing for election.

South Oxfordshire

At the last election, the Conservatives held six seats here. Only two are standing again: well-respected Ian Snowdon in Didcot and the inimitable David Bartholomew in Sonning Common. The LibDems will be agitating for gains, especially as they hold a majority on the district council: watch out for Goring and Sonning Common.

The Greens are also strong on the district council. They have two county seats right now, Wallingford and Berinsfield. Though neither incumbent is restanding, they’re hoping to retain both divisions. Oxvote’s forecast suggests they could end up with four wins, with Chinnor, Watlington, and Benson their likely targets.

Chinnor & Thame was previously a two-member division (a rarity on OCC), with one held by the Conservatives and one by the LibDems. It’s being split this time round into normal single-member divisions, so all bets are off. Watlington, too, is on a knife-edge and has the added fun of Oxfordshire’s sole Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate… not for us to say who they might take votes from.

Reform UK currently have two Conservative defectors, Kevin Bulmer and Felix Bloomfield. Bloomfield has jumped from Cholsey to Wallingford, which seems a curious choice; just as the LibDems do well where there’s a Gail’s, we wouldn’t expect Reform to do well where there’s a Waitrose. (But maybe it’s the retired colonel vote?)

In Didcot, Labour are working Didcot South and Didcot West hard, both essentially Conservative-held though boundaries are changing. The Conservatives’ Ian Snowdon is restanding in Didcot West, but the LibDems’ David Rouane is stepping down from Didcot Ladygrove, concentrating on his role as leader of South Oxfordshire District Council. Reform UK also believe they’re in with a chance.

Henley promises to be entertaining. Reform’s candidate is John Halsall, former Conservative leader of Wokingham Borough Council just over the river: he says the Tories have become “indistinguishable from the LibDems”. Local independent Stefan Gawrysiak is standing again, and the LibDems have stepped aside for him. The Conservatives are fielding local celebrity and Olympic rower James Cracknell. As a prominent figure in the No2AV campaign in 2011 he will no doubt be happy to see Henley residents voting tactically under First Past The Post for, er, Stefan Gawrysiak. (Cracknell was also last year’s Conservative parliamentary candidate for Colchester, which was won by Labour.)

The Clarion’s favourite Oxfordshire-dwelling Cracknell, however, is Sarah Cracknell, lead singer of Saint Etienne. Sadly she’s not standing for election, but Saint Etienne’s touring guitarist Robin Bennett has represented Berinsfield for the Greens since 2021. On a strictly non-partisan note, we're sorry he isn’t standing again – partly because he was our first ever follower on Twitter, and partly because we were hoping he might record ‘Tales From Speedwell House’ as a soundtrack to the OCC office move.

Cherwell

In 2021, Cherwell was dominated by the Conservatives, with nine county seats vs two for Labour and only one each for the LibDems and Greens. The tables have since turned on Cherwell District Council, which is now run by a LibDem/Green coalition. Meanwhile, Banbury’s parliamentary seat has flipped from Conservative Victoria Prentis to Labour’s Sean Woodcock. Will the county divisions follow?

OCC Conservative leader Eddie Reeves is currently councillor for Banbury Calthorpe. He’s jumping to the leafy lanes of Hook Norton & Cropredy, vacated by Conservative veteran George Reynolds. But this is by no means a safe seat. Here and in the other rural wards, the LibDems are the challengers, and they will be eager for a high-profile scalp.

Banbury is traditionally Con vs Lab, but it’s especially hard to call this time. Reform UK are standing in four of the five divisions and might be expected to do well, but they have already disowned their Banbury Hardwick candidate Stephen Hartley after a series of tweets calling Jimmy Savile “an innocent man” and “a real working class hero” came to light. In Easington, only 2.5% of projected Liberal Democrat and Green voters would need to vote Labour for the party to take the seat from the Conservatives. A further wildcard: three wards have left-of-centre independents on the ballot paper, which could shift a few votes away from Labour.

Bicester has also developed into a Con/LibDem battleground in recent years, with the LibDems perhaps taking the upper hand after their general election win for Calum Miller. Cycling on Sheep Street is a top leaflet topic here. We are surprised the Conservatives haven’t stepped aside for their long-standing independent ally Les Sibley in Bicester West, who votes with them in the ‘Conservative Independent Alliance’.

Kidlington currently has one Green and one Conservative, with a LibDem in neighbouring Otmoor. Boundary changes and the end of the LibDem/Green non-aggression pact make this another tricky town (sorry… village) to call; there’s already been a minor spat over Green leaflets which erroneously claimed their candidate as the only local. Current Green councillor Ian Middleton is standing in the reshaped Kidlington East ward, with his wife Fiona Mawson in Kidlington West. Both have been sceptical towards Oxford United’s proposed new stadium at the nearby Triangle site, perhaps the biggest issue in the to…village.

(Oxford Labour activists often do sterling service as paper candidates in divisions where the party has no realistic chance, but even then, we didn’t expect to find former Oxford Lord Mayor John Tanner on the ballot paper for Kidlington West.)

Vale of White Horse

To call the LibDems “dominant” in the Vale would be understating it. At county level, there are just two Conservatives, one ex-Tory Reform councillor, and an ex-LibDem independent. Everyone else is LibDem. The district is even more remarkable: 32 LibDems, four Greens, two indies. If there’s to be a Conservative fightback, this is the first place to look.

Retirements here include former Conservative cabinet member for transport, Yvonne Constance (Shrivenham), and prominent LibDems including Alison Rooke (Abingdon East) and Bob Johnston (Kennington & Radley), first elected in 1993. We’ll miss independent Sally Povolotsky, too, whose self-deprecating but impassioned addresses were always a highlight of council meetings.

The LibDem/Green split is one to watch here with neither party standing aside. The Greens have a real chance of taking Conservative-held Shrivenham with their candidate Emma Markham. Another Green, Aidan Reilly, is taking a stab at the LibDem redoubt of Abingdon East – though could the Conservatives, second last time, sneak through the middle?

One of Oxfordshire’s two Conservative councillors to have jumped ship to Reform, Kevin Bulmer, is standing in Drayton, Sutton Courtenay & Steventon. The Independent Oxford Alliance are fielding a candidate in Grove (Andrew Cattell), which seems about as sensible as Plaid Cymru trying for a seat in Bicester.

Watch too for the Oxford suburb of North Hinksey – likely to be a test for whether the traffic policies that have dominated Oxford politics will make waves outside the City boundary, and a Conservative target.

West Oxfordshire

Every single incumbent in West Oxfordshire is restanding, compared to half or less in the other rural districts. Evidently West Oxfordshire councillors enjoy their jobs. Something in the water? (No, Thames Water, not that.)

The LibDems will be looking to take more seats off the Conservatives, but there are no easy pickings: it’s plausible that West Oxfordshire could retain all its Conservative councillors. Indeed, the Conservatives have an outside chance of winning back Chipping Norton (Labour held) or Woodstock (LibDem held) – their candidate in the latter is former county council leader Ian Hudspeth – though our correspondents report blue posters are thin on the ground.

Witney is always close. This time it has the disruption of a new Witney West division (split from the former Witney West & Bampton) which, shorn of its more rural reaches, may be less of a shoo-in for the Conservatives. (Their councillor Ted Fenton has chosen the Bampton half.) Witney North & East, currently held by Labour’s Duncan Enright, is a three-way marginal: the Conservatives always poll well here, and the Greens are pushing hard.

Carterton’s febrile politics are rarely boring, much to the exasperation of the council governance officers who are asked to referee complaints about its Town Council. All three divisions are Con/LibDem battles, but with curious extra right-wing candidates in this military town. Stephen Breedon is standing for the “traditional family values” Heritage Party in Brize Norton & Carterton East. Former Heritage candidate David Roy Cox is now an independent in Burford & Carterton West, where he’s already got in hot water for a crass leaflet ranting about “mentally-ill LBTQ fanatics”. Add a Reform candidate in each division, and the traditionalist voter has quite some choice – a headache for the Conservatives.

Campaigning here, as elsewhere, is increasingly taking place on social media. But our favourite story so far from the West Oxfordshire campaign trail is a candidate who put up a poster in their window… for another candidate. In another town entirely. It was, at least, for the right party. May your voting choice be less confused than that.

Thank you… and goodnight

Over the past three years, the Clarion has regularly live-tweeted (and, latterly, bleated) Oxfordshire County Council meetings. Whether full council, cabinet, or ‘delegated decisions’, we’ve taken a look at the agenda and picked those which look liveliest. Sometimes we’re underwhelmed. Other times… oh boy:

Each councillor has their own style. Conservative leader Eddie Reeves is a headmaster who wants you to know he is very disappointed in you all. The LibDems’ Liz Leffman can be fabulously withering. Green leader Pete Sudbury is an erudite, arched-eyebrows bruiser for the climate. Labour’s Liz Brighouse, never short of impassioned, is basically impossible to condense into a single tweet.

And that’s just the leaders. OCC is a little council full of big characters. Kieron Mallon (Con, Bloxham) is perhaps best described as the anti-Guardian, a common-sense Freemason with strong opinions and a Wetherspoons loyalty card. Susanna Pressel (Lab, Jericho) does ‘exasperated’ like no one else, deftly exclaiming “oh, for goodness’ sake!” in a way you can’t help but nod along with. Brad Baines (Lab, Isis) would like to remind you that all this, whatever it might be, is the fault of the 2010 Conservative/LibDem coalition. Andrew Gant (LibDem, Wolvercote) taking his glasses off to make a point is practically a meme by now. Liam Walker (Con, Hanborough) and Tim Bearder (LibDem, Wheatley) are an on-going double act where we’re never quite sure whether it’s secretly cordial or genuine, heartfelt enmity. Duncan Enright (Lab, Witney N&E) is the council punster-in-chief. Sally Povolotsky (Independent, Hendreds & Harwell) is… just great. We are big Sally Pov fans.

Occasionally our live-tweeter ends up shouting at the screen. Sometimes it’s a case of “oh this guy again… that gives me three minutes to make a coffee”. But the real value, perhaps, is in the councillors who speak less often but are always worth listening to. Donna Ford, Andrew Coles, Damian Haywood, Ian Snowdon, Kate Gregory, Roz Smith. There are many others and we will have missed out people who deserve a mention.

Thank you for bringing your best to Oxfordshire these last few years: whether we agree with you or not, we have loved reporting on you all. We look forward to live-tweeting some of you from the next council, and occasionally shouting at you from the comfort of our live-streaming screen. The very best of luck.

Bonus by-elections

For Oxford residents who can’t get enough election excitement, there’s a City Council by-election on the same day. Barbara Coyne, elected as Labour in 2021 but latterly sitting as an independent, has stepped down in Headington Hill & Northway. All the parties are standing, but it’s probably a fight between the IOA’s Nasreen Majeed and Labour’s James Taylor – who, if elected, would become the youngest city councillor in recent memory, perhaps ever.

There will also be district by-elections at Watlington and Wheatley (both South Oxfordshire, LibDem-held); Standlake & Stanton Harcourt (West Oxfordshire, LibDem-held); Deddington (Cherwell, Conservative-held); Banbury Grimsbury & Hightown and Banbury Cross & Neithrop (both Cherwell, Labour-held). Three of these are a result of the sitting councillors being elected as MPs last July: Freddie van Mierlo in Watlington, Charlie Maynard in Standlake & Stanton Harcourt, and Sean Woodcock in Banbury Grimsbury & Hightown.