The 2026 election run-down

Elections come but once a year… depending where you live.

This time, it's the turn of Oxford City and the northern districts. Each council has a subtly different arrangement for electing its councillors (have we mentioned de Gaulle's 246 varieties of cheese…?), but essentially, every City ward has two councillors, one of whom is up for election on May 7. Cherwell, the council for Banbury, Bicester and thereabouts, is similar but with three-member wards. West Oxfordshire wards appear to be divvied up by an obscure branch of quantum mathematics.

By now you're used to our refrain about what city/district councils do: planning, housing, bins. Not roads. (That's the County Council.) Not, to the disappointment of some councillors, foreign policy. But although our wonderful Clarion readers are, of course, politically astute and know exactly what they're voting for, it would be naive to think every voter in May will mark their cross solely on bins and housing. Local elections are inevitably a proxy referendum on national politics, and right now, that isn’t looking good for Labour – as it wasn’t for the LibDems in the early 2010s, or the Conservatives a decade later. Such is the political wheel of fortune. “Rise up on my spokes if you like, but don’t complain when you’re cast back down into the depths.”

It used to be simple: as one party was cast down, the other two rose. In 2026, it’s more complex. The rise of Reform and the Greens has ushered in an era of five-party politics, fighting under an electoral system designed for just two. For the City Council elections, the Independent Oxford Alliance make it six contenders in all. Not every party is targeting every ward, of course, but there are some genuine four-cornered contests here. Under the first-past-the-post system, “splitting the vote” is a real concern. Could Reform sneak through the middle while Labour and the Greens duke it out? Or, conversely, will Labour benefit from a divided Reform/IOA vote? No one really knows, and a ward could swing to Reform without them delivering a single leaflet.

Oxford City

Let’s look at the broader currents before delving into the ward-by-ward minutiae. The Greens are surfing a wave nationally, and have been steadily gaining seats in Oxford since 2018. So this should be their year. They can call on huge crowds of activists, most of them new. This brings its own problems: a doorstep conversation can go well as well as badly. Nationally, splits are already starting to show, which is natural for a party that has grown so fast; it remains to be seen whether the party has the infrastructure to manage this influx of activists productively. Still, it’s a good problem to have – and having looked at the candidates in Oxford, we can't fault their vetting to date.

Labour are the very definition of the ‘squeezed middle’ in Government right now. It’s a tough sell on the doorstep when you’re blamed for perceived missteps by Keir Starmer, and anything people don't like the City Council having done. (Or not done, in the case of the congestion charge, which – say it with us – is a County Council matter.) Still, never underestimate the tactical nous of Oxford Labour. They appear to be playing a smart game, not overreaching into new target seats, focusing on defence of key players while looking for chinks in their opposition’s armour.

The pro-car Independent Oxford Alliance were big winners in 2024, taking four seats from a standing start. But they underperformed in last year’s County Council elections, and this year’s City slate is surprisingly weak, lacking candidates in wards where they scored well last time. Here's what we wrote on them in 2024.

Will their thunder be taken by Reform UK, particularly in wards beyond the ring road? Farage’s party tends to fight an ‘air war’ with paid-for leaflet drops and social media campaigns, and the lack of a single named agent in their candidate nominations suggests there’s no significant local organisation in Oxford, making their chances hard to assess from boots on the ground.

The Liberal Democrats have two strongholds in affluent North Oxford and Headington. Flatlining in the national polls, they’re unlikely to make dramatic gains but look to be carefully targeting their campaign.

The Conservatives haven’t won a seat in Oxford since 2000 and that won’t change this year, but the very fact of them delivering leaflets in Osney is interesting. So let’s look at the wards…

Headington and North-East

A mixed area – Headington itself is a LibDem stronghold, while the surrounding area is traditionally Labour but has seen incursions by the Greens and independents.

Kate Robinson for the Greens in Marston; Felix Bloomfield for Reform in Barton; the LibDems’ Kai Zolleis (Quarry & Risinghurst) and Paul Rogers (Barton & Sandhills).

Barton & Sandhills saw a high Reform vote at last year's county elections and could do so again. Their candidate is Felix Bloomfield, formerly Conservative county councillor for Benson & Cholsey in rural South Oxfordshire, but who failed to win re-election for Reform last year. He's challenging Labour incumbent Mike Rowley, Oxford's first openly gay Lord Mayor. Independent Chaka Artwell has stood here in every election since 2016, usually coming second. (We wrote about his, shall we say, less mainstream views, in 2024.) It's a pattern we'll see across the city, one way or another: will Reform and the independents split the vote, saving it for Labour?

Churchill is the seat of Labour's Susan Brown, City Council leader. We haven't seen any evidence of other parties campaigning here. Oh no no no no.

Headington is a long-standing LibDem redoubt, held by their group leader Chris Smowton. Independents have done moderately well here in previous years but none are standing this time. Labour's candidate is Emily Lygo, daughter of Churchill councillor (and ceremonial chair of Oxfordshire County Council) Mark Lygo.

Headington Hill & Northway was won in last year’s by-election by Labour's James Taylor, who has since set about campaigning for Oxford's nightlife with gusto. The IOA's Nasreen Majeed came very close to winning the by-election, with 445 votes vs Labour's 461, and is having another go this time: again, Reform are the wildcard.

Lye Valley is currently held by independent Ajaz Rehman, who is moving to fight Cowley instead. That leaves this wide open between Labour's Stephen Harwood, a former candidate in Henley-on-Thames; the Greens' James Thorniley; and Reform's Jakub Zagdanski, who came third in the 2025 county elections here. The IOA hold the other city seat here, so we are puzzled that they're not standing this time.

Marston is another three-, possibly four-way fight. Kate Robinson is the Green incumbent, standing again in a year when the Greens are flying high nationally. Labour hold the other City Council seat, and their candidate Charlotte Vinnicombe is fighting hard to win this one. The Independent Oxford Alliance have put up Emily Scaysbrook, proprietor of Hoyle's on the High Street and one of the figureheads of the failed legal challenge to the congestion charge. Nor would we entirely rule out Reform. It's most likely to come down to a Green/Labour duel, but this is a very hard one to call.

Quarry & Risinghurst looks like the one LibDem target east of the Cherwell: they already hold the Headington Quarry half on Oxfordshire County Council. Kai Zolleis is seeking to win it from Labour's Chewe Munkonge, Lord Mayor designate.

Inner East Oxford

The changing demographics of the area closest to the Plain mean this area has been swinging from Labour to Green in recent years. Will it continue?

Greens for Edward Mundy in Cowley; Labour for Thomas Boyd in St Clement’s; Saqib Faradoon in Donnington.

St Mary’s is held by the Greens' Emily Kerr and we doubt you'd find a soul in Oxford who would bet against her retaining it. Second place is likely to go to Labour's Toby James.

St Clement’s was formerly held by Labour's Jemima Hunt, who is stepping down. She was a rare Labour voice consistently in support of plans to restrict motor traffic in Oxford. This is a top Green target with a veritable blizzard of leaflets for their candidate Ahalya Bala. Against them is Labour's Thomas Boyd, who stood in Bartlemas at the county elections but lost to the Greens’ Emily Kerr. The LibDems are not campaigning here, and nor (unsurprisingly) are the Conservatives, but it's nice to see their energetic Oxford West parliamentary candidate Vinay Raniga making a reappearance on the ballot paper.

Donnington is a Green defence for their councillor Rosie Rawle. Her main opponent is independent Saqib Faradoon, whose campaign materials major on rolling back traffic restrictions (which aren't a City matter… but you know all this). The candidate list places him on Clive Road in Cowley, itself an LTN street with a bollard at each end, which puts him in the interesting position of actively campaigning for more traffic past his own house. We haven't seen any sign of Reform working this ward.

Cowley is a frontier ward, split between fast-gentrifying Florence Park – which as we reported in November, has seen one of the sharpest drops in deprivation in Oxford – and Church Cowley. With incumbent Amar Latif standing down, the contest is a straight two-up fight between independent Ajaz Rehman and the Greens' challenger Edward Mundy, who quit Labour over Gaza to sit as an independent in Holywell. In the context of a national surge of enthusiasm for Zack Polanski's party, this will be a real test of the Greens' campaigning organisation. Neither Labour, who held the seat previously, or the LibDems are actively campaigning this time.

Outer East Oxford

Out towards the ring road, it’s traditionally Labour vs independent here – but Reform could upset the apple-cart.

Labour’s Lubna Arshad in BBL; the IOA's Zack Iqbal in Rose Hill; Labour's Trish Elphinstone in Northfield Brook.

Blackbird Leys is a Reform target. Many of their city candidates live there, and there are no independents standing to siphon votes from them. Labour's incumbent councillor is Lubna Arshad, former Lord Mayor and current cabinet member for Safer Oxford. The redevelopment of the Ozone Leisure Park at the Kassam is totemic here, with residents worrying that their Saturday afternoon destination will be pushed out by the insatiable demand for lab space. Will Labour get any credit for their massive investment in Blackbird Leys? You’d like to hope so.

Northfield Brook sees Labour's Trish Elphinstone, formerly county councillor for Rose Hill & Littlemore, returning to the fray. The City Council's Standards Committee judged that IOA group leader David Henwood had harassed and bullied her, while the Clarion recently reported songs targetting her on an abusive AI radio station. The IOA came within a whisker of capturing this ward in 2024, scoring 385 votes against Labour's 392, which makes it strange that they're not putting up a candidate this time. Northfield Brook is the most deprived neighbourhood in Oxford, and getting (statistically) worse: how will this play out at the ballot box?

Littlemore is always volatile (to put it politely). Labour's Tiago Corais has a solid track record dating back to his first election in 2018. Against him is David Stares, standing as an independent, though curiously not listed as one on the ballot paper. Even more curious, he's married to the other Littlemore city councillor, Anne Stares, but not standing under her Independent Oxford Alliance banner. The IOA say “We operate as an alliance of independents… IOA candidates and councillors think for themselves and have their own views.” Husband and wife pairings aren't unknown on Oxford City Council (we can think of three), but a married couple in the same ward, both independent yet standing under different banners, is interesting. Reform will take a chunk of the vote here.

Rose Hill & Iffley is a key battleground. It's currently held by Labour’s Ed Turner, whose cabinet post is “Deputy Leader (Statutory) - Finance and Asset Management” – in other words, the city's Chancellor of the Exchequer. He's been a councillor since 2002. The ward is a prime target for the Independent Oxford Alliance, whose candidate Zack Iqbal has raised eyebrows by publishing a leaflet demanding "We Need Change in the Council"… with a smiley picture of him standing next to Ed Turner. Reform's candidate is Prudence Dailey MBE, a former city councillor for the Conservatives who thought Theresa May was too liberal: she’s also former chairman of the Prayer Book Society, which promotes continued use of the 16th century Book of Common Prayer within the Church of England. The Greens and LibDems aren't fighting here.

Temple Cowley is the fiefdom of independent councillor Saj Malik. We haven't seen any sign of other parties campaigning, but it will be an interesting benchmark for latent Reform support.

City Centre & South

The Greens are making hay in the city centre while Labour is playing defence.

The Greens’ Sushila Dhall campaigning in Carfax & Jericho; Labour‘s David Calonge with Anneliese Dodds MP in Osney & St Thomas.

Hinksey Park was held by Labour's Naomi Waite, stepping down. Their new candidate is Siobhann Lancaster, who has deservedly won local plaudits for standing up to Raise the Colours agitators on Abingdon Road. The most likely challenger is the Greens' Hannah Scott, but this doesn't appear to be a priority ward for the party.

Carfax & Jericho is held by Labour's planning chief Alex Hollingsworth, a local resident and councillor since 1994 – and by our live-tweeters' estimation, one of the most effective speakers in council meetings. Challenging such an incumbent is not for the faint-hearted, but the Greens are having a good go with their long-standing activist Sushila Dhall, refugee campaigner and also a local resident. Given the national political landscape, we can't call this one. The LibDems are putting up John Howson, former county cabinet member and no political lightweight, but this is primarily a Labour/Green scrap.

Holywell was won by Labour in 2022, but their councillor Edward Mundy left over Gaza and is now standing for the Greens in Cowley. The Greens believe they can take this one too, with their candidate Alfie Davis, director of Oxford Mutual Aid. Labour have nominated a first-year university student, Awab Kazuz, which suggests they're not expecting to win. This university-dominated ward is the only one Reform aren't standing in; scuttlebutt suggests they had a candidate, but couldn’t find anyone to sign the nomination papers.

Osney & St Thomas has a Green incumbent, Lois Muddiman, and given the Greens' national showing she has a good chance of staying on. Labour hold the other seat here with veteran councillor Susanna Pressel, and are seeking to capture this one. Their candidate David Calonge, interestingly, works for Oxfordshire County Council. This is entirely above board – although you can't be a councillor for the council you work for, other councils are fair game – but it does raise the question of what would happen when the two councils are merged as a unitary. The Conservatives are leafletting here, too, which surprised us a little. But if you want a foothold back in the city you’ve got to start somewhere, and that ‘somewhere’ would be consistently targeting one seat over successive election cycles…

North Oxford

The Liberal Democrats’ city stronghold but with a strong Labour presence.

The LibDems’ Katherine Miles in Summertown, and Jo Bowlt in Walton Manor; Labour’s Louise Upton in Walton Manor.

Walton Manor is Labour's sole seat in the north of the city, held by Louise Upton. Judging by activity reported, this looks like a LibDem target for their candidate Jo Bowlt, who has driven a Morris Oxford to Oxford, New Zealand, and ridden a Brompton across the Americas. (Fair play to her: we don't even enjoy riding a Brompton up Headington Hill.)

Summertown is held by the LibDems' Katherine Miles. We haven't seen any significant campaigning effort from other parties.

Wolvercote is another LibDem stronghold, with Elizabeth Turkson Wood standing to replace Jo Sandelson. The IOA, however, did well at last year's county elections against transport chief Andrew Gant.

Cutteslowe & Sunnymead is held with a sizeable majority by Laurence Fouweather, very much the sort of LibDem councillor caricatured by Kemi Badenoch as “somebody who is good at fixing their church roof”. (The Clarion, needless to say, thinks fixing church roofs is a good thing.) Labour are traditionally second here but we don't expect an upset.

West Oxfordshire

The two northern districts, West Oxfordshire and Cherwell, are both run by centre-left coalitions – West Oxfordshire is LibDem/Lab/Green, Cherwell is LibDem/Green – but the coalition partners don’t shy away from fighting each other at election time. The Conservatives are still very much in contention, and Reform have a chance in the towns.

West Oxfordshire is particularly fraught, with four seats being won by under 10 votes last time round. Inevitably, potholes and the closed Eynsham Park & Ride feature on leaflets, both County Council matters. Witney’s Woodford Way car park, where West Oxfordshire District Council want to build social housing, is another topic of contention and is at least a genuine district issue. The LibDems aren’t taking Conservative attacks lying down, putting out punchy leaflets linking the decisions back to the former Conservative administration.

The Greens’ Sandra Simpson “planking” before setting off to campaign for Rosie Pearson in Brize Norton; Reform’s Natalie King in Carterton; the Conservatives' Liam Walker and Toby Morris in Hanborough.

In Witney, every party is having a stab at Witney East, currently held by Labour but traditionally a Conservative target, and Ducklington (on the southern edge of town), currently Conservative. Witney South, again Labour-held, could be promising for Reform.

Carterton rivals only Littlemore for febrile politics. Natalie King, elected in Carterton North-West for the LibDems but suspended for “aggressive behaviour”, subsequently joined Reform; she has jumped to Carterton South this time. The LibDems had recently gained a foothold in this fast-growing, formerly Conservative military town, but again its demographic could favour Reform.

The rural areas are largely LibDem/Conservative scraps and we don’t expect Reform to figure here, though there’s an interesting Green/LibDem battle shaping up in Brize Norton & Shilton. The Conservatives look to be seeking to claw back Woodstock & Bladon and Freeland & Hanborough.

The LibDems have scored a coup in Chipping Norton, a three-way fight, by recruiting town mayor Sandra Coleman as their candidate, while local MP Sean Woodcock has been out campaigning for Labour’s Sian O’Neill. No matter how many times that Park & Ride features on leaflets, we would be amazed if Eynsham didn’t vote LibDem.

Cherwell

The district council for Banbury and Bicester is currently run by a minority LibDem/Green coalition, and this seems unlikely to change.

The Greens’ Claire Brenner in Bicester West; Labour’s Sian O’Neill (with Sean Woodcock MP) in Chipping Norton; the LibDems' Nicola Borkmann (with dog) for Cropredy.

Six seats are up for grabs in Banbury. The South Midlands town is usually a Labour/Conservative battleground, but that was before Reform gate-crashed the party: if Farage’s outfit make big gains anywhere in Oxfordshire, it’ll be here. A slate of left-wing independents, including parliamentary contender Cassi Bellingham, could blunt the Green advance.

The most eye-catching contest in Bicester is the East ward, where former Conservative deputy leader Donna Ford is standing as an independent. Oxfordshire special educational needs campaigner Claire Brenner is standing for the Greens in Bicester West, where two seats are up and where independents often do well. The LibDems will be seeking to consolidate recent gains in the town, where Labour, surprisingly, aren’t fielding a full slate.

Kidlington is usually a LibDem/Green contest, while the rural wards are largely LibDem vs Conservative. The LibDems won Deddington on the County Council last year, and their candidate Jim Hartley is now seeking to unseat Conservative group leader Eddie Reeves on Cherwell too. There’s a rare Continuity SDP sighting in Cropredy: now a socially conservative Europhobic party, it’s a long way from the 1980s Alliance that became the LibDems.

Finally, Cherwell’s Conservative stalwart, Barry Wood, is standing down this time. Elected continually since 1983, and council leader for 20 years from 2004 to 2024, he successfully navigated a changing politics in a way that often eluded other Oxfordshire Conservatives, and always with a dry wit. The Conservatives are battling the LibDems to retain his Fringford & Heyfords ward.

Slicing the local government cheese. Photo by Roger Close.

Coda

Winning the election is the easy bit.

We're being glib. We don’t underestimate the shoe leather expended in pounding the streets of Oxford. Activists of all parties and none have our utmost respect.

But imagine the (quite plausible) scenario that on 8 May, Labour have the most Oxford City councillors; the Greens are not far behind; and an alliance with the LibDems would put the Greens in front. What next?

LibDem/Green alliances are now commonplace in Oxfordshire. On the City Council, we'd expect the Greens to outnumber the LibDems, giving them first dibs on the leadership. Who would they choose as their leader? It’s not a given that an opposition group leader will want the commitment of running a city; for example, Liz Leffman only became leader of Oxfordshire County Council’s Liberal Democrats after the successful 2021 election.

Then let's say an email arrives in the new leader's inbox some time in June. “Dear Oxford City Council, Congratulations! We have chosen your plan for a Greater Oxford council. Love, Government.”

Except the LibDems don't want that, at all. The Greens are split. The City Council would be forced to reshape itself in the mould chosen by their Labour predecessors, and against their LibDem colleagues at the County Council.

The email reply would follow a few months later. “Dear Government, Here's our new Local Plan. You know you gave us a Greater Oxford council so we could build 50,000 houses in the Green Belt? Yeah, we're not going to do that any more. Love, Oxford City Council.”

And meanwhile, a party swept to power in a tide of idealistic votes is grappling with the realpolitik of keeping your activists happy while dealing with all the constraints placed upon you by Government, planning laws, and unstoppable demographic change… all without a strong majority in the council chamber.

Good luck to everyone seeking election on Thursday. You may need it. And so may we all.